Winning Lays : Make Money by Betting on Horses to Lose

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Proofing

Our Selections

Our primary proofing service is Racing Index (RI). They are an independent company to whom we submit our selections before the event start time. The selections we send to our subscribers are identical to those we send to Racing Index.

So why do some of our selections not show in RI performance tables and in our results? When we send our selections to subscribers and to RI we specify the selection should not be laid at or above a certain price e.g. 3.0, which equates to 2/1 traditional odds. This cut-off is there solely to protect our profits by minimising risk. When any of our selections starts a race at SP above or equal to our cutoff, RI does not include this in its calculations and results. In order to be consistent with RI, we do not do so either, and our subscribers are not charged for such selections.

Price Availabilty

Although our cut-off point in the example above is 3.0, this does not mean that any given selection which ends up at SP 3.0 or greater was not available at some stage below 3.0 on the exchanges, so some of our selections may have been laid successfully but do not show in our results because the SP was above our cut-off.

Why use SP?

For proofing services, SP is used so that each tipster's results are being compared against the same standard. Supposing tipster A at 10 a.m. recommends a back on Deadcert, and the Betfair price available at 10 a.m. was 4.0. Tipster B also recommends a back on Deadcert, but does so at 1 p.m. when the price has dropped to 3.0. If the proofing service accepted that tipster A had managed to back the horse at 4.0, then his profit for a £10 stake would be £30.00 (less commission), while tipster B for the same stake and on the same horse would be showing a profit of only £20. The reality is that both have provided the same winning tip, which is the important thing, so their comparative performance should be the same. This is achieved by applying the SP price to both. If the SP was 1/1, both would show a profit on RI tables of £10.

Interpreting proofed performance

Proofing services can only tell you so much. RI provides other stats based on stakes, number of selections and results. However, you really need to look carefully at all selections for any given tipster to get an idea of how successful they are. The higher the SP, the greater the difference between SP and the actual price available on the exchanges. RI suggest this difference can be up to 20%, but in reality its actually impossible to put a value on it. A horse with an SP of 20/1 would probably have traded on Betfair at around 35, while one with an SP of 100/1 would probably have been at 500 on Betfair. At lower prices, the range we operate in, the difference between SP and Betfair is much, much smaller, but again its impossible to specify because of the volatile nature of the exchanges.

The key statistic for us is Profit over Time. You will see our success rate on the RI page for Winninglays at the bottom of the table. On our results page, we show the total points profit based on a one-point level stake and a built-in deduction of 5% for exchange commission.

It is not a good idea to use strike rate alone to determine if the service is profitable. By recommending lay bets on long shots, a service may have a very impressive strike rate, but this type of laying is high-risk. Just two or three losing bets in a row could see your entire bank wiped out. Similarly, long shot selections will always be significantly higher priced on the exchanges than SP, so profit shown which is based on SP is impossible to achieve.

Conclusion: Since RI does not display selections outside the tipster's min/max levels, the only way you can get 100% accuracy about a tipster's performance is by signing up to the tipster's service and some of the charges are simply outlandish. With our service, the cost is from £1.23 per winning tip (where the selection wins its race or where the SP is above our stated cut-off, you get a free tip), so you get the chance to get an accurate picture for very little outlay.

Notwithstanding the limitations of proofing services in helping you to choose a tipster service, it is insane to pay for services which do not proof selections. Many of these services can and do invent successful results and prices. They often claim massive profits and charge high joining fees and most are just scams. If a service does not independently proof selections, avoid it like the plague.